Does Warren Buffett Know Something We Don't?

Nov 19, 2024

- Warren Buffett has sold more stock this year than at any time in his career.

- Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on the most cash in its history.

- Warren Buffett did not purchase a penny in stock in the third quarter of 2024.

- The Buffett Indicator shows US stocks are overvalued at 200% of GDP, one of the highest levels in history.

 

Blackrock, Goldmann Sachs, and Vanguard all predict low stock returns (3-5% annually) for the next decade. 

 

Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.

Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher. 

Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.

 

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates. 

 

This creates an opportunity. 

Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.

If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.

We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.

Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!